Possible scenario
Tighter Waiver Terms
25% Chance
The Treasury Department keeps the waiver in force but narrows practical eligibility through additional documentation, destination limits or reporting requirements. This is plausible because Washington can preserve emergency diesel supply while reducing the risk that sanctioned Russian entities receive unrestricted financial benefit.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- FDX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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