Possible scenario
Smooth Limited Restart
45% Chance
OFAC's waiver is implemented without immediate legal or banking disruption, allowing Russian diesel cargoes to resume in controlled volumes. The most likely outcome is a measured restart rather than a flood of supply, because compliance checks, shipping insurance and end-user documentation still constrain flows.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO-1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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