Possible scenario
Political Backlash Builds
20% Chance
US lawmakers, EU officials or Ukraine-aligned governments criticize the waiver as weakening sanctions pressure on Moscow. The waiver may survive, but political scrutiny raises the risk of later restrictions and makes banks and shippers more cautious.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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