Possible scenario
Early Election Path
20% Chance
The unrest grows into a wider political crisis involving opposition parties, civil society groups, and student unions. Rama may still try to control the timetable, but sustained unrest could force discussion of early elections or a caretaker arrangement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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