Possible scenario
Cabinet Shake-Up
27% Chance
Rama sacrifices senior education officials or reshuffles the cabinet to absorb public anger without conceding the prime ministership. This outcome is plausible because it gives the government a visible response while preserving Socialist Party control.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.