Possible scenario
Open U.S.-Iran Clash
25% Chance
A further attack on escorted shipping prompts the United States to strike IRGC coastal radar, drone or missile assets. Iran retaliates but calibrates its response to avoid a full regional war, leaving markets to price a much higher near-term disruption risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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