Possible scenario
Managed Maritime Corridor
35% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, France and Gulf navies intensify escorts and mine-clearing rather than immediately widening the war. Flows remain impaired but stop deteriorating, allowing insurers and charterers to resume some voyages under convoy.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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