Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
25% Chance
Oman, Qatar and European intermediaries press Iran and the United States into a temporary maritime deconfliction arrangement. Tehran gains a face-saving channel for sanctions or escrow talks while avoiding a direct naval defeat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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