Possible scenario
Entrenched Hormuz Closure
32% Chance
The bypass plan is interpreted as confirmation that Gulf states expect the Strait of Hormuz crisis to last longer. UAE mitigation helps at the margin, but the loss of normal Gulf shipping keeps crude, freight, and insurance risk premia elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Consumer Services -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.