Possible scenario
Diplomatic Partial Reopening
18% Chance
The UAE bypass effort adds pressure on Tehran by reducing the long-run leverage of a Hormuz closure. Oman and Qatar broker a limited deconfliction channel, allowing some escorted cargoes to resume and taking pressure off oil markets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Consumer Services +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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