Possible scenario
Southern Fighting Resumes
25% Chance
The destruction of 600 sites becomes a catalyst for renewed tactical fighting across southern Lebanon. Both sides remain concentrated near the border and buffer-zone villages, but the April cease-fire is effectively suspended in practice.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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