Possible scenario
Soft-Landing Slowdown
35% Chance
The labor market keeps weakening, but not enough to trigger a broad recession. The Federal Reserve responds with additional rate cuts while employers slow hiring rather than launch mass layoffs outside AI-exposed white-collar roles.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Business Services -0.5%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.