Possible scenario
Recession Recognition
30% Chance
The long job-search duration proves to be a late-cycle warning rather than a benign adjustment. Layoffs spread from technology and professional services into finance, retail and industrial employers, increasing the odds of a recession designation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.7%
- Finance -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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