Possible scenario
Policy-Led Reacceleration
23% Chance
The job-search duration spike prompts an aggressive policy response before layoffs become self-reinforcing. Lower borrowing costs and targeted labor-market programs help employers restart hiring in 2027.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.5%
- Business Services +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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