Possible scenario
Limited US Support
42% Chance
Washington is most likely to provide intelligence sharing, targeting advice, and training while avoiding direct combat against the Houthis. This fits the recent U.S. pullback from strikes but allows support for the Saudi-backed Yemeni government offensive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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