Possible scenario
Conflict Escalates
25% Chance
The request could be followed by a sharper battlefield phase if U.S. intelligence improves the Yemeni government's offensive. Houthi leaders may answer with missile, drone, or Red Sea pressure to deter deeper U.S.-Saudi involvement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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