Possible scenario
Conflict Broadens
20% Chance
A fresh Houthi attack hits or narrowly misses a core Saudi oil asset under French protection, creating a direct test of France's commitment. Investors move into a higher geopolitical risk regime, with crude and volatility rising sharply over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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