Possible scenario
Taiz Front Stalemates
30% Chance
Neither side can translate the latest halt into a decisive battlefield shift. Taiz remains divided, the Aden road is intermittently open, and the coastal offensive slows while both camps reinforce their positions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.