Possible scenario
Guardrails Replace Pause
20% Chance
Trump and Xi may reject a development freeze while still accepting lighter guardrails around frontier models. This path produces standards for evaluations, incident reporting and government use without materially delaying commercial deployment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.7%
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
- +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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