Possible scenario
AI Race Accelerates
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Washington and Beijing treat AI capability as a strategic priority and reject broad moratoria. Investment in chips, data centers, cloud infrastructure and national AI programs continues, while safety concerns are handled through voluntary testing rather than binding delays.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.9%
- Utilities +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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