Possible scenario
Limited Air Campaign
30% Chance
Trump authorizes a limited U.S. strike package against Iranian nuclear, missile or IRGC infrastructure while still ruling out ground forces. The campaign is designed to be punitive and contained, but retaliation risk remains high.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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