Possible scenario
Iranian Retaliation
22% Chance
Iran chooses to demonstrate deterrence through missile, drone, cyber or proxy attacks rather than absorb the carrier buildup passively. The key market question becomes whether retaliation stays calibrated or threatens Gulf energy flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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