Possible scenario
Coercive Standoff
35% Chance
The third carrier deployment is used primarily to raise pressure on Tehran rather than to begin immediate combat operations. The White House issues deadlines and moves more air-defense assets into the region while Oman, Qatar and European governments try to keep channels open.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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