Possible scenario
Supply Shock Dominates
20% Chance
The federal preemption push proves secondary to physical supply constraints. Russia's diesel export ban, refinery maintenance, and U.S. logistics bottlenecks keep distillate inventories tight despite regulatory relief.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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