Possible scenario
Withdrawal Gets Reversed
34% Chance
The most likely path is that Xavier Becerra’s campaign treats the LA Times withdrawal as a tactical protest rather than a permanent boycott. Because the 74% figure referred to Steve Hilton’s Republican support rather than a statewide lead, Becerra has an incentive to clarify the record and avoid looking evasive.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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