Possible scenario
Hilton Gains Momentum
27% Chance
Hilton’s campaign uses the debate withdrawal to reinforce its argument that Becerra is vulnerable on immigration and unwilling to defend his record. The effect is most meaningful inside the campaign narrative and Republican fundraising channels, not across financial markets.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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