Possible scenario
Graham Rescue Holds
40% Chance
The Senate GOP infusion gives Darline Graham enough paid media and field support to blunt Andrews’s fundraising edge. Trump’s endorsement and John Thune’s involvement help consolidate Republican turnout in a state that still leans GOP despite the close polling.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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