Possible scenario
Partial License Relief
40% Chance
China allows limited yttrium shipments to resume after pressure from Japanese ministries, downstream manufacturers, and trading partners. Beijing preserves leverage through short-duration licenses and end-use checks rather than reversing the export-control regime.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- MP+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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