Possible scenario
Allied Supply Acceleration
20% Chance
Japan moves quickly to secure non-Chinese yttrium feedstock and expand domestic refining capacity. The strategy does not fully replace Chinese supply immediately, but it reduces the probability of a hard stop in 2027.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- MP+3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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