Possible scenario
Targeted Containment Holds
43% Chance
Pennsylvania and neighboring states use contact tracing, school exclusion rules, and pop-up MMR clinics to slow transmission. The national total continues to rise for several weeks, but the outbreak stops looking like a broad consumer or labor-market event.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.2%
Tickers
- MRK+0.5%
- CVS+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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