Possible scenario
Controls Recur Later
20% Chance
Operational or policy limits return when Ukrainian drone missions approach sensitive geographic or escalation thresholds. This remains a meaningful risk because SpaceX has previously restricted military use and the Pentagon may still retain caps for particular mission types.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX-4.8%
- AVAV-0.9%
- VSAT+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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