Possible scenario
Managed Disruption Persists
30% Chance
Student groups keep momentum without producing a national political break. The state contains the unrest administratively, but rolling closures and scattered clashes continue to disrupt education and urban activity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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