Possible scenario
Escalation Into Unrest
15% Chance
A minority but plausible path is a sharper confrontation between police and protesters, with videos of clashes expanding mobilization. The issue moves beyond school funding into a broader test of the government’s austerity agenda.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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