Possible scenario
Beijing Controls Narrative
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a familiar censorship-and-denial cycle. The Chinese Foreign Ministry denounces the footage as foreign smearing, while the Cyberspace Administration of China removes reposts and search terms on mainland platforms.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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