Possible scenario
Sustained Winter Strikes
45% Chance
Russia continues a high-tempo drone and missile campaign against Kyiv and Ukraine's power infrastructure, consistent with the recent pattern of winter energy attacks. Ukrainian air defenses limit the strategic effect, but rolling outages and civilian casualties persist.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.