Possible scenario
China Link Escalates
20% Chance
Investigators focus on the secret Chinese acquisition of CryptoBilis and whether the ownership change enabled tampered devices to enter approved sales channels. The outcome depends on whether the incident is framed as organized cybercrime or a more sensitive state-linked supply-chain compromise.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Finance -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.