Possible scenario
Quiet Termination Holds
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Paolo Zampolli remains out of the envoy role and the State Department treats the dismissal as a personnel matter. The Trump administration absorbs the political embarrassment without allowing it to become a wider diplomatic or market-moving event.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.