Possible scenario
Orderly Rule Adoption
45% Chance
The CFTC finalizes a retail leverage framework broadly consistent with its proposal, emphasizing margin standards, segregation of customer assets, risk disclosures, and registration for leveraged crypto platforms. This is the most likely path because the agency has already asserted authority using existing powers after Congress failed to pass the CLARITY Act.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+1.8%
- CME+1.6%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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