Possible scenario
Inflation Caution Dominates
20% Chance
The ECB gives more weight to the renewed inflation pressure seen in July than to the benign wage tracker. Policymakers keep the door open to a longer pause, stressing credibility and the risk of cutting too soon.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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