Possible scenario
Easing Bias Returns
25% Chance
The wage data gains influence inside the Governing Council, allowing Lagarde to lean gradually back toward easing if inflation cools. This would extend the easing cycle that began in 2024 without framing it as a rapid pivot.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.