Possible scenario
Data-Dependent Hold
45% Chance
The ECB keeps a balanced stance, emphasizing that neither July’s inflation flare-up nor the softer wage tracker is decisive on its own. Christine Lagarde and the Governing Council continue to signal patience while waiting for autumn inflation, wage, and PMI data.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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