Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Escalates
22% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with heavier strikes on Houthi launch sites, command nodes, and missile-storage facilities in Yemen. The immediate market reaction depends on whether the strikes suppress further launches or trigger a fresh retaliation cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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