Possible scenario
Limited Missile Pressure
38% Chance
The Houthis continue intermittent missile launches toward Riyadh, but Saudi air defenses prevent mass casualties or major infrastructure destruction. Riyadh airport remains the focal point, with the market treating the event as a serious but geographically contained escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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