Possible scenario
Defenses Stabilize Riyadh
28% Chance
Saudi Arabia, with U.S. and Gulf support, improves interception rates around Riyadh and restores confidence in civil aviation. The crisis remains serious, but markets begin to discount a contained security response rather than a widening war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.6%
- Energy -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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