Possible scenario
Persistent Supply Deficit
26% Chance
Even with higher prices, the physical copper market remains tight because new mine supply takes many years to permit and build. This scenario keeps the green-transition bottleneck centered on price rationing rather than immediate volume growth.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Utilities -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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