Possible scenario
Security Risk Returns
15% Chance
The prior attack keeps investors focused on whether Saudi export infrastructure remains vulnerable. A renewed incident is less likely than continued normalization, but even a limited event would quickly reprice crude-risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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