Possible scenario
Controls Stay Hard
25% Chance
The presence of Altman, Musk and Bezos does not translate into looser AI or semiconductor policy. Trump keeps the China truce separate from national-security controls, preserving the January 2025 restrictions and the October 2023 export-control architecture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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