Possible scenario
Strike Evidence Emerges
25% Chance
Commercial imagery, Iranian statements, or U.S. leaks contradict the initial denial and point to a limited strike or covert attack on Konarak. The market reaction is sharp but contained if damage is localized and neither side immediately widens the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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