Possible scenario
Iran Retaliates
25% Chance
Tehran treats the Konarak episode as a U.S. action or uses it to justify renewed pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The key uncertainty is whether retaliation stays at the level of harassment and isolated attacks or becomes a temporary disruption to transit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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