Possible scenario
Denial Holds
35% Chance
Washington’s denial is accepted by most regional governments, and no convincing evidence emerges that the U.S. hit Konarak Naval Base. Markets treat the headline as a rumor-management episode inside an already tense Hormuz crisis, leaving the oil risk premium elevated but not accelerating.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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